Trying to predict results in the 2024 Chess Candidates tournament seems even harder than usual, with all the young players, the possible ripple-effects of one outlier with a much lower rating, a player who’s won the Candidates twice, another who came a hair’s-breadth from winning the World Championship, and a competitor who barely scooped up the highest rating spot but is/was seen as one of the most likely future champions.

But I’m going to take a shot anyway because…it’s fun! And it means nothing. And I’m making predictions that are a mélange of what I think will happen and what I wish would happen.

My prediction for the tournament final standings:

  1. Ian
  2. Hikaru
  3. Fabi
  4. Alireza
  5. Pragg
  6. Gukesh
  7. Vidit
  8. Abasov

What would be fun to see (and great for the game):

  1. Hikaru
  2. Pragg
  3. Alireza
  4. Fabi
  5. Abasov
  6. Vidit
  7. Gukesh
  8. Nepo

I love that I will be happy, for various reasons, with any winner this time around. I’m definitely expecting some exciting chess and tournament dynamics.